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Rethinking retirement

Bankrate.com


Retire -- to give up one's work, business, career, etc., especially because of advanced age.

Webster's New World College Dictionary

Advanced age? Have you thought about retiring at 55? Have you had to reconsider and delay it to 60, or maybe 65?

The bear market dismantled a lot of retirement dreams. Portfolios fattened in the bubble years crash dieted when the market went bust. But could your portfolio have lasted until really "advanced age?" What if you live to age 90 or 95? Could your portfolio survive 35 or 40 years?

As affluence and retirement daydreams nudge us into considering retiring at far earlier ages than our parents or grandparents would have dreamed, advances in health care keep us alive far longer, too. Realistically, not many of us can amass a portfolio that would see us through 40 years of retirement.

Perhaps it's time to rethink what it means to retire. The reality may not be your original dream, but maybe you'll find that a slimmer portfolio doesn't necessarily mean you can't stop working -- at least for a while.

"Retirement is not your dad's retirement anymore. It's evolved due to increases in life expectancy," says Larry Cohen, director of the Consumer Financial Decisions group at SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.

"At the turn of the last century, retirement was for the really, really wealthy. Everyone else worked until they died. When Social Security was formed in 1933, less than 2 percent of the population lived past 65. It didn't matter that they didn't have a lot of money."

Cohen says his company's research shows some people are changing the face of retirement. They're carving out a new life strategy.

Revolving retired

"They're not saving every penny to retire and they're not saying, 'I've got this money and I have to live off of it forever.' We call it 'revolving retired.'

"Some people work because they can't afford not to. Others might or might not be able to retire, but they change their vocational system. They retired a couple years ago, but they start a new business -- a bed and breakfast, or maybe they consult for a couple years."

Cohen's position is that these people are blazing a trail for baby boomers who start to retire in 2011.

"Revolving retired supposes that someone could be retired for a couple of years and come back into the workforce -- not be a greeter at Kmart, but in the area of their endeavor."

Cohen identifies 42 million households in the U.S. where an individual, or couple, is 55 years of age or older and has no dependent children. He lists four categories within that segment, including the newly booming revolving retired.

Here's how the categories break down. Pre-retired (not retired, but preparing for retirement) -- 8.7 million households Revolving retired (went from full-time to part-time employment or had retired, but is now working) -- 5.3 million households Retired -- 23 million households Not retired/not preparing -- 5.2 million households

Retirement redefined

Cohen's retirement scenario shows that flexibility may be one of the keys to not just surviving retirement, but enjoying it. He says he expects the baby boomers to pump up the revolving retired category and to further redefine the meaning of retirement.

"Since many of them delayed having kids and many still don't feel they've reached 30, I suspect they will not go gently into that good night."

Even if the revolving-retired scenario appeals to you, you may still feel the need to boost your portfolio by taking on some questionable risk. If, as many pundits proclaim, we are in the beginning of a new bull market, it can be tempting to chase the latest skyrocketing stock. You might reap a windfall, and then again, you might lose a lot.

We spoke with three experts who, in their own words, offer advice for patching up your battered portfolio.

Frank Armstrong, CFP, author of "The Informed Investor: A Hype-Free Guide to Constructing a Sound Portfolio" and founder of Investor Solutions, Inc.

"There is so much road kill on the financial highway. It's horrible, what's happened to people, whether they've been victims of brokerage firms or their own poor behavior. The temptation is to say, 'I'm nearly destitute, and so I need to take a lot more risk to get back on track.' That's a formula for disaster. Do what you should have done five years ago; get back to basics. Do an investment plan that makes sense. It shouldn't be inordinately risky.

"Global diversification is a well-established way to control risk. We do that by using index funds. You can probably increase the expected return by tilting the portfolio to some degree to smaller company stocks and to value stocks.

"You're not taking on more risk, you're taking on different risk. We underperformed people doing tech stocks in the bull market, but for the last three years we outperformed the market on the equity side by at least 35 percent. We lost a cumulative 8 percent over those three years, while the S&P probably lost 50 percent.

"There is no risk-free strategy. This is the one with the highest probability of success for the next 100 years and the highest probability of success next year. But it's not a guarantee it will outperform every day. It's not instant recovery; it's a solid strategy. I can't restore people's wealth -- it's gone -- but I can put you on solid footing today."

Jason Flurry, CFP, Planmark Capital Management

"Stay well-diversified. Look at what goes into making investment returns. Most of the media focus is products -- fund A over fund B, or XYZ stock over ABC stock. Research says that's responsible for a small percentage of success. The biggest component is asset allocation.

"It's in the down markets that people throw away their plan. If a plan is properly allocated and it went down, there's nothing to do but sit tight. Normal fluctuations are to be expected as much as cold winters in the north.

"Go back and profile yourself. There are financial profile questionnaires online. How much risk are you comfortable taking? What is your time horizon? What are your resources? Use conservative growth -- use 7 percent or 8 percent instead of 10 or 12 percent.

"For most investors who are around 55 years old, a middle-of-the-road portfolio of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds works well. But on the fixed income side, you're not compensated to go long-term on bonds. Go more short-term on bonds; the one-year to five-year yield curve is steeper than normal right now. The sweet spot in the yield curve is about eight years.

"Don't try to out-guess the market. It's the retail experience vs. the institution experience. The institutions use asset allocation, they leave the money and ride out the storms. The retail investor tends to trade a lot and buy and sell at the wrong time. The right allocation forces you to sell the things that get too far to the positive. Take profits and sell at the high and buy bonds on the low end to rebalance the portfolio.

"It's pretty boring: Follow your grandmother's advice and don't keep all your eggs in one basket. There is no long-term advantage to owning concentrated positions."

David Nawrocki, professor of finance, Villanova University

"Don't overlook the effect inflation has on investment portfolios. Generally, when inflation is in the 4 percent to 12 percent range, equities do very poorly. It goes with the business cycle. The economy heats up, inflation heats up and you have restrictive monetary policy -- it's not conducive to strong equity returns.

"During recovery, what we're in now, equities do well and they should do well until inflation gets up to about 4 percent. I don't expect any quick jump until maybe the middle of next year. It should be a good market until then. The last time we were in this situation was 1992-1993, and we had pretty good stock market years.

"Our suggestion is to reduce stock holdings from 70 percent to about 30 percent when inflation rises above 4 percent. But if interest rates are shooting up, long-term bonds aren't a safe haven either. Go to money markets and intermediate bonds and TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.)

"We also see it as a benefit for a retirement portfolio to have a constant cash outlook. It helps anytime you can reduce having to liquidate investments."

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